US Midterms 2026: Three Days to Go, Democrats Lead the Polls and Early Voting Surges Past 43 Million

Three days out, the polls point one way

With three days remaining before the US midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November 2026, Democrats are leading national polls and hoping to take control of Congress as millions of Americans cast their ballots early Times Now. Democrats are strongly favoured to win the House of Representatives, while their advantage in the Senate is narrower, and several potentially decisive Senate races remain close enough to be affected by a normal polling error Times Now.

The stakes are high. The outcome will determine which party controls the congressional agenda, leads key committees and oversees President Donald Trump’s administration during the final two years of his term Times Now. Midterm elections have traditionally been difficult for the party occupying the White House, giving voters an opportunity to check presidential power without removing the president from office.

What the latest polls and forecasts show

According to the latest national congressional ballot average by RealClearPolling, Democrats lead Republicans by 8.2 percentage points, with 51.4% support against 43.2% Times Now. An Economist/YouGov survey released on Thursday found that 44% of registered voters expected Democrats to control the House after the election, compared with 31% who thought Republicans would retain it, while expectations for the Senate were much closer, at 39% to 36% Times Now.

Election forecasts also give Democrats an advantage in both chambers. Silver Bulletin’s forecast, updated on 29 October, gave Democrats a 95.1% chance of winning the House, projecting an average of 240 Democratic seats against 195 Republican seats, and put their chances of taking the Senate at 77.7%, with an average projected split of 53 Democratic seats to 47 Republican seats Times Now. Decision Desk HQ, in its forecast updated on 29 October, gave Democrats an 80% chance of winning the House and a 60% chance of taking the Senate, projecting 238 Democratic seats in the House and 52 in the Senate Times Now. VoteHub gave Democrats an 89% chance of controlling the House and a 63% chance of winning the Senate Times Now.

Forecasts are not results, and the models disagree on the size of the Democratic advantage even where they agree on its direction. That distinction matters most in the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 advantage and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure an outright majority, since Vice-President JD Vance can break a 50-50 tie in favour of Republicans, meaning Democrats would need 51 seats to take control Times Now.

The Senate races to watch

In Texas, where Democrats have not won a Senate election since 1988, Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are virtually tied in the polls Al Jazeera. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are also competing in a closely contested race, with a Mitchell Research poll for CBS Detroit conducted on 26-27 October finding El-Sayed leading Rogers 51% to 44%, while RealClearPolling showed a narrower race, with El-Sayed at 48% and Rogers at 46% Al Jazeera. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on 22-26 October suggested Democrats ahead by nine points nationally, with 47% of voters supporting Democrats compared with 36% for Republicans, and 50% to 41% once undecided voters’ leanings were taken into account; the same poll put Trump’s approval rating at 32%, with 73% of US adults saying the cost of living was going in the wrong direction Al Jazeera.

Early voting is already running far ahead of 2022

More than 43 million Americans had already voted in person or returned mail-in ballots by five days before Election Day, according to an Associated Press analysis released on Friday Times Now. That figure is nearly 10 million higher than the number recorded at the same point before the 2022 midterms, with some of the biggest increases reported in states with competitive Senate races Times Now.

In Texas, more than 6.3 million people had voted early by Wednesday, compared with 4.2 million at the same stage in 2022, an increase of 50% Times Now. Georgia had recorded more than 2.5 million ballots by Friday morning, exceeding the 2.3 million cast during the entire early voting period in 2022 Times Now. Early voting was also up by more than 30% compared with the same period in 2022 in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas, according to the AP analysis Times Now.

Early voting figures do not reveal which candidates voters have supported and cannot, on their own, predict the final election results Times Now. High turnout is a fact; who it helps is still a guess, and both parties spent the final weekend campaigning hard in the states where the Senate will be decided.

What happens next

The final polls and forecasts before Tuesday will tighten the picture only slightly. The real test comes on election night, when the House count will show quickly whether the national polling lead translates into seats, and the Senate will likely come down to a handful of states — Texas, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, Alaska and Kansas among them — where the margins are within polling error. Young voters could be decisive in the closest House races, and Democratic candidates in swing districts have been courting them directly.

We need everybody and young people are a huge part of the coalition and could really be the difference-maker on November 3rd.

That was Will Lawrence, a Democratic candidate hoping to win Michigan’s 7th Congressional District from the Republicans, speaking to Al Jazeera Al Jazeera. For context on how the race looked five days out, see our earlier report on the midterm polling picture.