Highlights
- Gold futures for December delivery on MCX fell Rs 5,768 — nearly 4% — over the past week to close around Rs 1.42 lakh per 10 grams; internationally, bullion recorded a 4% weekly decline, its steepest since June, and hovered near a three-month low at $3,987.45 an ounce
- Silver fell harder: down 7.14% on MCX to Rs 1.96 lakh per kg over the week, even as it edged up 0.2% to about $54 an ounce in early Monday trade
- The trigger is oil: Brent crude reached a six-month high near $118 last week after attacks in Saudi Arabia and was still around $115 on Monday, fuelling inflation fears and higher-for-longer rate expectations
- All eyes are now on the US Federal Reserve’s October 27–28 meeting and US inflation data on October 29; in India, 24K gold stood at Rs 1,42,010 per 10 grams in Delhi and silver at Rs 1,95,900 per kg on Monday
The fall, in numbers
The weekly damage is precise. Gold futures for December delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange fell Rs 5,768, or nearly 4%, over the past week to close at around Rs 1.42 lakh per 10 grams, with elevated US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar weighing on the metal (The Times of India). Internationally, gold fell 0.2% to $3,987.45 per ounce on Monday, hovering near a three-month low, after a 4% weekly decline that was its steepest fall since June (The Times of India). Silver slumped 7.14% on MCX over the week to Rs 1.96 lakh per kg, though it edged 0.2% higher to around $54 an ounce early on Monday, bucking gold’s marginal decline (The Times of India).
Indian equities caught the same chill: the Sensex opened about 300 points down, below 72,850, and the Nifty slipped more than 100 points to breach 22,500, as weakness across global markets and persistently high crude kept inflation risks on investors’ radar (ABP Live). Intraday trade in bullion stayed volatile on Monday — MCX gold was reported marginally higher above Rs 1,42,600 per 10 grams in the morning session even as the weekly trend remained down (Goodreturns).
Gold and silver rates in Indian cities today (October 26)
Retail rates on Monday, October 26 (Asianet Newsable):
| City | 22K Gold (10g) | 24K Gold (10g) | Silver (1 kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delhi | Rs 1,30,176 | Rs 1,42,010 | Rs 1,95,900 |
| Mumbai | Rs 1,30,396 | Rs 1,42,250 | Rs 1,96,240 |
| Kolkata | Rs 1,30,231 | Rs 1,42,070 | Rs 1,95,980 |
| Chennai | Rs 1,30,781 | Rs 1,42,670 | Rs 1,96,810 |
| Bengaluru | Rs 1,30,506 | Rs 1,42,370 | Rs 1,96,400 |
| Hyderabad | Rs 1,30,607 | Rs 1,42,480 | Rs 1,96,550 |
Why expensive oil is bad news for gold
The chain of logic runs against instinct. Brent crude reached near $118 a barrel last week — a six-month high — on fears over supply after attacks in Saudi Arabia, and eased only to about $115.80 in early Asian trading on Monday (FXEmpire; Business Standard). Expensive fuel keeps inflation high, high inflation strengthens expectations that interest rates stay higher for longer — the market expects the Fed to hold rates unchanged in October, but expectations of a December hike are high — and higher rates reduce gold’s appeal because gold pays no interest (FXEmpire; Asianet Newsable). Gold and silver, in other words, face fresh selling pressure this week as the oil surge revives inflation fears, and the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting — followed by US PCE inflation data on October 29 — could determine whether bullion stabilises or extends its decline (The Times of India; FXEmpire).
What happens next
First, this is a rates story wearing a war story’s clothes. Gold’s worst week since June did not happen despite the Middle East tension but because of what the tension did to oil, and what oil does to inflation expectations. As long as Brent holds anywhere near $115, every inflation print becomes a referendum on bullion — starting with US PCE data on October 29.
Second, the Fed meeting on October 27–28 is the hinge. A hold, as expected, changes little by itself; the wording will be traded word by word. Signals of further tightening would extend the logic that has hurt gold and silver all week, while any hint that policymakers are worried about growth would hand the metals their first real support in days (FXEmpire).
Third, for Indian buyers, the context matters more than the daily tick. Even after the fall, 24K gold in Delhi is Rs 1,42,010 per 10 grams and silver is within sight of Rs 2 lakh a kilo in several cities — historically extreme levels in the middle of the wedding and festive season (Asianet Newsable). A 4% weekly correction at these heights is a fluctuation in a very expensive market, not a return to cheap gold — and with oil, the dollar and the Fed all pulling at once, further two-way swings this week should surprise no one.
