Highlights
- The deep depression over the Bay of Bengal intensified into Cyclonic Storm “Arnab” on Monday morning, October 26 — the first cyclone to develop in the Bay of Bengal in 2026
- IMD forecasts landfall on the Andhra Pradesh–Yanam coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam in the forenoon of October 28, with maximum sustained winds of 115–125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph
- Red alerts for extremely heavy rain (over 200 mm in 24 hours) are in force for Kakinada, Eluru, East and West Godavari, NTR and Krishna districts; a storm surge of 1.0–1.5 metres is warned near Kakinada and Yanam
- More than 4,800 fishing boats have returned safely to the Kakinada coast, schools and colleges in five Odisha districts will stay closed on October 28 and 29, and Odisha has deputed eight ministers to vulnerable districts
What changed overnight: a depression became Cyclone Arnab
The system crossed the threshold that gives it a name. The deep depression over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved nearly westwards at about 15 kmph and intensified into Cyclonic Storm “Arnab” (pronounced Ornab) on Monday morning, the India Meteorological Department said (The Hindu). In its 8:20 a.m. bulletin, the IMD, Amaravati, said the cyclone lay centred over the east-central and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal, about 590 km northwest of Sri Vijaya Puram in the Andaman Islands, 650 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 730 km east-southeast of Kakinada, 830 km east of Machilipatnam and 910 km east of Bapatla (The Hindu).
This is the first cyclone to develop in the Bay of Bengal in 2026 that will affect the Indian coast (Indian Express).
The landfall forecast: October 28, Bapatla to Visakhapatnam
The IMD expects Arnab to keep strengthening over open water: into a severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal by Monday midnight, and into a very severe cyclonic storm over the same region on Tuesday, October 27 (The Hindu). It is then expected to cross the Andhra Pradesh–Yanam coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam during the morning hours of October 28 with wind speeds of 115–125 kmph, gusting to 140 kmph (Indian Express).
One nuance in the Met department’s own wording is worth recording exactly as stated: “Cyclone Arnab will further intensify into a ‘very severe’ cyclone when it reaches close to the Andhra Coast. It will cross the Indian coast as a ‘severe’ cyclone,” the department’s Monday update said (Indian Express). The wind window in the official forecast — 115–125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph at landfall — has not changed between the Sunday and Monday bulletins (The New Indian Express).
Rain, surge and sea: the warnings district by district
The wind is only part of the threat. The IMD has warned that a storm surge of 1.0 to 1.5 metres above the astronomical tide could inundate low-lying areas near Kakinada and Yanam during landfall, and that the sea will turn high to very high along and off the Andhra coast by the evening of October 27, and phenomenal by the morning of October 28 (The New Indian Express). Squally winds of 40–50 kmph, gusting to 60 kmph, are expected from the morning of October 27, rising to 90–100 kmph, gusting to 110 kmph, by that evening (The New Indian Express).
For rainfall, Kakinada, Eluru, East and West Godavari, NTR and Krishna districts are on red alert for extremely heavy rain — more than 200 mm in 24 hours — while Srikakulam, Parvathipuram Manyam, Vizianagaram, Anakapalli and Alluri Sitharama Raju districts are on orange alert for very heavy rain of 110–200 mm (Indian Express). In Odisha, Ganjam, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri are on orange alert for Wednesday, and those districts along with Gajapati move to red alert for extremely heavy rain on Thursday (Indian Express). Heavy rain is also likely to continue in parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh on October 29 (The New Indian Express).
The preparation race: boats in, ministers out, schools shut
On the ground, the response is already visible. At least 4,800 fishing boats called off fishing activity and returned safely to Kakinada fishing harbour and landing centres along the Kakinada coast, after appeals by the Fisheries Department, the Indian Coast Guard and district authorities not to venture out until further direction (The Hindu). Kakinada District Fisheries Officer V. Krishna Rao told The Hindu: “Above 4,800 boats which are involved in the marine fishing in the Bay of Bengal off Kakinada coast have returned from the sea and anchored at their respective harbour and landing centres by Monday” (The Hindu).
Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu reviewed the state’s preparedness on Sunday and directed officials to maintain round-the-clock vigilance and ensure comprehensive preparedness to minimise the cyclone’s impact and prevent loss of life, with officials briefing him on evacuation plans, rehabilitation centres, food and drinking water, medical assistance and power restoration (The Hindu). In Kakinada and East Godavari, officials have been told to defer leave, control rooms have been set up at the Collectorate and mandal headquarters, and relief camps have been identified (The Hindu).
Odisha, which sits north of the projected landfall zone, is preparing as if the track could shift. Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi deputed eight ministers to vulnerable districts and said that although the system was forecast to make landfall in Andhra Pradesh, the Odisha government would take no chances, directing officials to prioritise public safety, evacuation and emergency response under the state’s zero-casualty objective (The Hindu). Schools and colleges in five Odisha districts have been ordered to remain closed on October 28 and 29 (The Times of India).
What to watch in the next 48 hours
First, the track cone is now narrow enough to act on, but not narrow enough to relax outside it. Two consecutive days of IMD bulletins have held the same landfall stretch — Bapatla to Visakhapatnam — and the same wind window. That consistency is why both states have moved from monitoring to mobilisation. But the rainfall alerts tell the wider story: Odisha’s red-alert districts on Thursday sit well north of the landfall zone, because a cyclone’s rain shield does not respect the point where the centre crosses.
Second, the most dangerous hours may not be landfall itself. The forecast sequence — sea turning phenomenal by the morning of October 28, a 1.0–1.5 metre surge near Kakinada and Yanam, and extremely heavy rain continuing into October 29 — means flooding risk peaks as the winds ease. The 4,800 boats already in harbour and the pre-identified relief camps are the unglamorous details that decide outcomes in storms like this.
Third, Wednesday morning will test a forecast made on Monday. Arnab’s final intensity at the coast depends on how much it strengthens over the west-central Bay of Bengal tonight and tomorrow. The IMD’s own wording leaves room between “severe” and “very severe” at crossing. What is not in doubt is the preparation baseline both states have now set — and the next IMD bulletins, not social media forwards, are where any change to that picture will appear first.